Americas Migration Brief - November 11, 2024
Welcome to the Americas Migration Brief! If you find this newsletter useful, please consider sharing with a friend or colleague.
Se puede acceder aquí a una versión en español del boletín traducida por inteligencia artificial.
Consulte aqui uma versão em português do boletim traduzida por inteligência artificial.
Table of Contents
Integration and Development
🇩🇴 Dominican Republic
Given the Dominican Republic’s great reliance on Haitian labor in the agricultural sector, the country’s migration agency and agricultural ministry have debated the possibility of granting those in the sector temporary work permits and protection from the recently launched mass deportation campaign. (Diario Libre, Haiti Libre, Observer)
🇵🇪 Peru
Venezuelan migrant children “face multiple obstacles in their access to education, particularly due to the lack of documents, which affects their integration into the Peruvian educational system,” reports El Comercio, adding, “the dropout rate in this group has grown, reaching 19% between 2021 and 2022, in contrast to the much lower rates of Peruvian students, 1.2% and 1.9% respectively.”
An International Migration paper uses surveys from April to May 2023 to explore “adaptation attitudes of Venezuelan migrants as well as the attitudes towards their adaptation among Peruvian neighbours living in Peru,” finding, “Venezuelans exhibited a greater proclivity towards positive adaptation whereas their neighbours demonstrated a tendency to marginalize or separate migrants.”
🇧🇷 Brazil
“A survey conducted with refugees and migrants from Venezuela living in Brazil shows that 5 out of 10 participants believe that climate change is already seriously affecting essential aspects of their lives, such as health, food and working conditions,” says IOM.
🇪🇨 Ecuador
An IDB working paper includes “an artifactual field experiment with human resource recruiters in Ecuador to investigate the extent to which migrants are penalized in the labor market.” Through the intervention, the authors find “robust evidence of a penalty against migrants across all dimensions. Venezuelans are penalized despite being from a population who shares cultural, historical, and linguistic characteristics with natives and has, on average, higher levels of education… there is suggestive evidence that jobs requiring a greater degree of local knowledge or public interface carry a higher migrant penalty.”
🇵🇦 Panama
“Indigenous Guna families on the Panamanian island of Gardi Sugdub became the first to undergo a climate-related relocation by the government this year, because of the threat of rising sea levels. Hundreds of residents moved to a new town built on the mainland. But many fear that the relocation has put their traditions and culture in peril, reports the Guardian.” (via Latin America Daily Briefing)
🇨🇴 Colombia
An El Barómetro report explores recent spikes of xenophobia on social media in Colombia last month.
🇦🇷 Argentina
A CAREF report explores access to documentation and regularization for migrant children and adolescents in Argentina.
🇺🇸 United States
“A federal judge on Thursday struck down a Biden administration program that would allow unauthorized immigrants married to American citizens to get legal status and a streamlined path to U.S. citizenship, declaring the policy illegal,” reports CBS.
“Poverty among older people in general in the United States has jumped sharply in recent years… But immigrants without legal work status are at a special disadvantage. They are not eligible to access Social Security or other crucial programs for the elderly, such as Medicare, despite the fact that many of them spent years paying into the plans,” reports LA Times.
MPI developed “first-ever projections of the U.S. working-age population by immigrant generation… The results underscore the large and often overlooked impact of the growing working-age population of the U.S.-born offspring of immigrants in offsetting the declines in U.S. workers brought about by aging and lower fertility rates.”
🇨🇦 Canada
“It is wise of Canada to scale back the number of new refugees it plans to resettle if that helps stabilize the housing market and prevents backlash against newcomers, the head of the UN refugee agency said during a visit to Ottawa,” reports The Globe and Mail, adding, “Grandi says Canada remains a global leader in resettlement, but says that pro-refugee sentiment is fragile in an economic or housing crisis and it would be “really negative” to see it destroyed… integrating refugees has to be handled with extreme care, he said.”
“Hundreds of residents gathered Saturday to protest the City of Ottawa’s proposal to place temporary housing for refugees in a Kanata park-and-ride,” reports Ottawa Citizen, adding, “Knoxdale-Merivale Coun. Sean Devine said he had received more than 100 emails from residents, and their concerns fell into one of four categories. Some residents were looking for more information and were ‘confused and scared,’ while others acknowledged the need for temporary housing for refugees, but didn’t believe it should be in their community. Others welcomed the measure, offering to get involved and help, while some ‘are quite anti-migrant in general,’ Devine said.”
Asylum, Protection, and Human Rights
🌎 Regional
“Although the number of people migrating through the Darién Gap region has declined in 2024, the number of minors migrating unaccompanied has increased, according to a Panama-based UNICEF official. Last year, about 3,300 children walked through the Darién jungles unaccompanied. During the first nine months of 2024, 3,800 children have done so. Most are Venezuelan.” (TalCual; via Daily Border Links)
🇲🇽 Mexico
“Two Colombian migrants were killed and at least four others were wounded when the Mexican National Guard fired on two vehicles that allegedly attacked them earlier at a point on the Mexico-California border,” reports AP. (see AMB 10/7/24 on a previous, recent incident of the National Guard killing migrants in Mexico)
🇭🇹 Haiti
“The month of October was marked by the persistence of armed violence both in the West department (Solino, Tabarre, Arcahaie) and in Artibonite (L'Estère, St Michel de L'Attalaye, Pont Sondé). This situation has caused thousands of new population displacements,” reports OCHA.
“Haitian activists called on other countries to temporarily stop deportations to their country due to a surge in gang violence and deepening poverty. Tens of thousands of people have been deported to Haiti in the past month, mostly from the Dominican Republic.” (AP; via Latin America Daily Briefing)
🇺🇸 United States
UNHCR submitted comments on the Biden administration’s “Securing the Border” rule that restricts access to asylum, expressing concerns over these limitations and asserting that the “proposed changes establish what are effectively bars to protection in violation of international law.”
Politico and The New York Times both highlight immigration advocates’ preparations for “battle” and an onslaught of legal battles under the Trump administration beginning in 2025.
WOLA’s Adam Isacson highlights stories related to the US-Mexico border and human rights at the Weekly Border Update, noting that with Donald Trump’s election last week, the incoming Trump administration will likely set its sights on “Ending use of the CBP One smartphone app to schedule appointments at U.S.-Mexico border ports of entry… Ending nearly all access to asylum between ports of entry… Ending the Biden administration’s humanitarian parole program for citizens of Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela… Canceling Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA)... [and] Refusing to continue Temporary Protected Status (TPS),” among other policy changes.
🇨🇦 Canada
“Canadian police and migrant aid groups are bracing for an influx of asylum-seekers fleeing President-elect Donald Trump's United States at the same time Canada deals with record numbers of refugee claimants and is trying to bring in fewer immigrants,” reports Reuters.
The Safe Third Country Agreement between Canada and the US would limit much in the way of options for migrants or asylum seekers, notes Bloomberg, while some advocates assert that fears of migration increases are “overblown,” per The Gazette.
“Lebanese nationals and their immediate family can extend their stay in Canada under a temporary program announced by Immigration Minister Marc Miller on October 30, 2024,” reports Immigration, noting that critics are calling for a more expansive program to provide protection.
Migratory Institutions and Regional and Bilateral Cooperation
🌎 Regional
Donald Trump’s election victory in the United States impacts the hemisphere and regional cooperation more broadly. Analysis on this issue (as it relates to migration) includes:
US-Mexico relations are particularly contentious and will be highly affected by the change in power in Washington. Trump has “threatened tariffs as high as 100 percent on Mexico,” per Washington Post, with the president-elect keen on using Mexico as a key enforcer. “Mexico will continue pursuing measures to stop migrants from reaching its northern border with the United States, its top diplomat said on Friday,” per Reuters. Trump had a call with Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum last week. (Reuters)
“Mr Trump will try to force Mexico to accept ‘safe third country’ status so that non-Mexican migrants must claim asylum in Mexico instead of the United States. Mexico has flatly refused this, calling it a ‘red line,’” says The Economist.
James Bosworth predicts at the Latin America Risk Report that the incoming Trump administration may negotiate with Venezuela’s Maduro in a transactional manner in order to get Maduro to accept deportation flights from the US—that has been a tall order for the Biden administration and other countries across the hemisphere.
Some have expressed concern that Venezuelans deported from the US may then return to migrate—this time, returning to Colombia. Others have shown concern that Trump may look to coerce Colombia to more closely cooperate on enforcement and preventing northbound migration and will be unlikely to grant greater visa liberalization for Colombians. (El País, El Tiempo, La Silla Vacía)
Prensa Libre highlights US-Guatemala relations under Trump, including concerns about increased pressure over migration enforcement.
🇺🇸🇨🇴 Colombia and United States
“The Gulf Clan, the organized crime group that dominates Colombia’s entrance to the Darién Gap migration route, called on the U.S. and Colombian governments to “join a constructive dialogue” about migration, drugs, and deforestation. The group charges roughly $50 to $80 or more per person to allow migrants to enter the Darién and manages “guides” and other services on the Colombian side of the trail. Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s government is conducting informal talks with the Gulf Clan about its potential demobilization.” (El Tiempo, El Espectador; via Daily Border Links)
🇨🇴🇪🇨 Ecuador and Colombia
Ecuadorian and Colombian officials met to discuss the issue of human trafficking and border coordination and “approved the binational work roadmap for the period 2024-2025.” (IOM)
🇬🇹🇲🇽 Mexico and Guatemala
Mexican and Guatemalan officials have met to discuss migration-related issues, and Mexico has reasserted its commitment towards shared cooperation and efforts to reduce the root causes of migration from Guatemala. (El Universal, Bloomberg)
🇧🇷 Brazil
MigraMundo reviews the context of the Comigrar II national migration conference, which ran last weekend, highlighting criticisms surrounding delays in the organizing process.
Labor Migration
🇺🇸 United States
“Employers are likely to face increased hurdles when accessing foreign talent during President-Elect Trump’s second term,” says Fragomen, breaking down the future labor migration outlook for US-based businesses.
“The U.S. health care sector is grappling with a severe labor shortage… Restrictive and complex immigration policies are making it difficult for migrant workers to access health-related jobs and for the sector to meet a growing demand for care. Proposed immigration policy reforms include raising visa caps for health care workers, creating new health care-specific visa categories, reducing administrative burdens, and reforming occupational licensing laws to allow qualified immigrants to practice within their full scope of training,” per a Baker Institute report.
🇧🇷 Brazil
“According to the National Registry of Health Establishments (CNES), in 2024, 13,736 foreign health professionals were registered as active in Brazil, of which 73.04% work in the SUS, representing 11,601 non-Brazilian professionals in the public health system.” (Agência Gov)
Migrants in Transit
🇨🇴 Colombia
“Some 2,800 Venezuelans cross into Colombia every day, motivated by political uncertainty and the difficult economic situation in Venezuela. Of these, 60% cross illegally, only with expired ID cards or passports,” according to Fundaredes. (see also La Nación)
🇭🇳 Honduras
“Between 10% and 25% of minors who drop out of the school system migrate” (El Heraldo)
🇺🇸 United States
“Extreme weather is contributing to undocumented migration and return between Mexico and the United States, suggesting that more migrants could risk their lives crossing the border as climate change fuels droughts, storms and other hardships, according to a new study. People from agricultural areas in Mexico were more likely to cross the border illegally after droughts and were less likely to return to their original communities when extreme weather continued,” reports AP.
Although some have expressed concern that Donald Trump’s election will lead to a migrant rush before the new year, “it is too early to tell if that surge will actually materialize,” according to The New York Times.
Borders and Enforcement
🇺🇸 United States
“Donald Trump recaptured the White House after promising policies that included a militarized, mass deportation of undocumented immigrants — a costly undertaking that would probably face immediate legal and logistic challenges,” reports Washington Post, looking at those plans. “Donald Trump is expected to mobilize agencies across the U.S. government to help him deport record numbers of immigrants, building on efforts in his first term to tap all available resources and pressure so-called "sanctuary" jurisdictions to cooperate,” adds Reuters. Stateline looks at the role of states and cities in supporting—or impeding—mass deportation efforts. (the AMB has previously covered issues related to Trump’s mass deportation proposal; see, for example, AMB 10/7/24)
“Quiet preparations to implement “mass deportation” are now “ramping up” to full-scale planning, CNN reported. Advisers are discussing priority targeting of undocumented migrants with criminal records while they debate the next steps for “dreamers,” undocumented people who were brought to the United States as children. Slate pointed out that the deportation plan may count on the participation of local police departments nationwide. Private security contractors that run prisons and detention centers are ramping up their own planning, CNN added. The stock prices of private detention companies like CoreCivic and Geo Group soared following Trump’s election. GEO Group’s board chair said his company was “well-positioned” to go from its present allotment of 13,500 Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention beds to “over 31,000 beds.” But the incoming administration won’t immediately have the money to pay them unless it resorts to emergency authorities.” (CNN, Slate, The Huffington Post, Fortune; via Daily Border Links)
“The Dallas Morning News recalled that Trump advisor Stephen Miller said last year that mass deportation could involve detention camps built “on open land in Texas near the border.” (via Daily Border Links)
“Arizona voters have approved letting local police arrest migrants suspected of illegally entering the state from Mexico, an authority that would encroach on the federal government’s power over immigration enforcement but would not take effect immediately, if ever,” reports AP.
“Some Arizona border sheriffs have warned they’re in no position to enforce the law, given there’s no resources tied to funding the measure,” reports NPR.
🇨🇱 Chile
“Currently being discussed in the Senate (after being approved by the Chamber of Deputies) is Bill Bulletin 15.261-25, which proposes establishing clandestine entry into Chile as a crime. Its objective is to discourage irregular migration through tougher sanctions for those who enter the country in violation of the law. Although the problem is urgent, the bill presents serious problems regarding its effectiveness in reducing irregular migration, reducing organized crime, and respecting international human rights commitments,” writes Centro de Políticas Migratorias’ Juan Pablo Ramaciotti at El País. (see related CPM report; see last week’s AMB)
🇵🇦 Panama
A Witness at the Border report “noted that Panama operated 25 deportation flights between August 1 and November 2, with 989 people—about 1.5 percent of Darién Gap migration—taken to Colombia (19), Ecuador (5), and India (1).” (via Daily Border Links)
🇹🇨 Turks and Caicos
Turks and Caicos “has officially launched its Border Force, marking the culmination of a three-year endeavour spearheaded by the Ministry of Immigration and Border Services, which has seen a significant expansion of enforcement and intelligence teams, substantial investments in cutting-edge technology, and the implementation of robust legislative frameworks,” reports Loop.